8 Mile Island

Detroit's Fate
By Tom Bethell

Intransigent unions, declining auto makers, and poor public policy have wrecked both Michigan and its largest city. But the worst may be over, writes TOM BETHELL.

For the Ford Motor Company’s Rouge Factory Tour, we were instructed to assemble at the IMAX theater. That’s in Dearborn, on the outskirts of Detroit. The theater turned out to be next to a huge, dispiriting, almost empty parking lot. But if you go to Detroit you get used to parking lots that seem larger than necessary.

Detroit’s population peaked with the Census of 1950 at 1,849,000. Today, it’s less than half that. An analysis of FBI crime statistics by Congressional Quarterly in November found that Detroit is America’s most dangerous city, with Michigan’s Flint, 60 miles away, ranked third. And, while Detroit would hardly seem to be an overheated real estate market, it has suffered more than Las Vegas or Miami in the recent property bust, ranking second nationally in its foreclosure rate. The automobile industry hasn’t been doing so well, either.

At a time when the national and global economies have been thriving, the unemployment rate of the metro area centered in Detroit, as of October 2007, was 8 percent—the highest among the nation’s 34 largest metropolitan divisions and nearly twice the overall U.S. rate. Phoenix, by contrast, was 2.9 percent. While the United States has gained 1.7 million jobs over the past year, Michigan has lost 75,000, and its unemployment rate, 7.7 percent in October, is the highest of any state.

In response to the state’s fiscal difficulties, the Canadian-born governor, Jennifer Granholm, recently raised taxes—the biggest increase in Michigan’s history. The state with the worst economy now, according to the Tax Foundation, has the 11th highest tax burden.

From the outside, Michigan and Detroit look like disasters. Why? Bad public policy, grasping unions, the shifting fortunes of the domestic auto industry? Do the state and its largest city have a future? In all my 45 years in America, I had never been to Detroit, so I decided to go there and take a look for myself. A tour of the Ford plant was probably a good introduction.

I went to Detroit last year, and honestly, it wasn't as bad as I expected. It was definitely less depressing than driving through Bethlehem, PA, and I'd rather live there than New Jersey. Which is faint praise as they say.

In a related note, I've added HBO back as the last season of The Wire has started. This article made me think of Baltimore, because if you go there, you will see they aren't exaggerating anything. They too raised taxes in an effort to get a phoenix to rise from the ashes, but you can burn a lot of money in that pursuit and not get anywhere. I drove up to Johns Hopkins the other week, and yes, I locked my car doors when I got off the freeway.

Also, unlike last year when they left McNulty alone, the show's writers are messing up his new marriage just so they can satisfy their desire for tragedy. It's annoying and so the more they moan about their lack of recognition, the more I think they deserve it.