Post-election prediction evaluation

Obama won by about 6 points, so I was off by the same amount as the prediction markets on the voter margin. Efficienter and efficienter, I guess.

Prediction Market Prediction

Intrade is currently showing the last prices on the Presidential Election as 91.5 for Obama and 8.8 for McCain. The Iowa election market has similar prices for the Winner Takes All Market, and comes in at near a 8 point spread on the Vote Share Market.

I certainly think Obama will win, probably by 3-4 points, which I feel will be the actual margin because of the economy. But I think that McCains chances are better that future market prices indicate because the internet is a biased estimator of the US population. It tilts Libertarian on the right, and Progressive on the left compared to the general US population. This introduces a market bias, and you can make money from that, which I happened to do in 2004. Excuse me while I put on a top hat and smoke a cigar. I abstained this year, mostly out of lethargy from too much smoking.

Anyway, I did not abstain from voting, which I did early, but not early enough, this morning. I managed to hit the exact buldge in the morning rush before work, so it took about 40 minutes. And my Ipod battery died! But I soldiered on, and got my sticker. Of course, the end of the line followed me in. Perfect.

On a separate note, I've seen a spate of posts out that claim voting is irrational, because the likelihood that your vote will decide a tie is essentially zero. I beg to differ. I think it's mostly rational, for some of these reasons - e.g., you don't really know how close the vote is going to be, and so how close to the tipping point your own vote is can only be determined by everyone getting out and voting. This was certainly true in the 2000 US election, and here in Virginia in 2008, I think it is also true. I vote because I expect that many other people will vote like me, and that we depend on each other to vote as our chance of winning is proportional to our turnout. Seems rational to me.

Bacon up that donut

Donuts and Bacon [via]

McCain and Palin do not have a similar iconographic logo, so I'm not sure what you could do there. (previously, press button - receive bacon)

Funny haha

I lied. Here is yet another "ha ha" as Mike Huckabee wins the DC's Funniest Celebrity competition last week. Previously, Huckabee on SNL.

Everything New is Old Again

The Museum of the Moving Picture's Collection of Presidential Campaign Commercials: The Living Room Candidate. I think this is amazing.

As much awfulness as there is out on the net, I think things like this - the ability to go and look at 50 years of political adds at your wim - are amazing. In science, it's the unheralded explosion of the pdf file format that may be one of the largest breakthroughs. The fact that I can go through more than a hundred years of journals so easily at the AIP just boggles me, and there undoubtably are rediscoveries that can be made by data-mining it. Likewise, all sorts of previously rare media will be at our fingertips. Unobtainium no more. Amazing.

this is kinda silly to announce here

but posting will be kinda light. I am in Texas for work. I had a nice, if very brief visit to Austin, and I will have to make it back soon. Now I'm in Killeen, where I just ate something that mooed when I put it in my mouth. And even more now, I am incredibly sleepy.

And of no appropos at all, Facts about Sarah Palin [fixed]

funny haha

Biden's probable acceptance speech.

a brief lapse into the political vernacular

Joe Biden?

Politics is the ultimate bloodsport

5 nastiest U.S. Presidential Elections

Are you prepared to see your dwellings in flames… female chastity violated… children writhing on the pike? GREAT GOD OF COMPASSION AND JUSTICE, SHIELD MY COUNTRY FROM DESTRUCTION.

Not too much new under the sun, huh? FWIW (0), I predict McCain/Huckabee vs Clinton/Richardson, and the variance is way, way higher on that last one.

No Respect

Because you Kan't, you won't, and you don't stop

Metaphysical attack ads. Back in school, the stop signs were tagged with "Kant" every Spring, which is just the inevitable outcome of making four hundred Freshpersons slog through (partsof) Critique of Pure Reason in a week. Nietzsche wasn't popular because of his ideas. Nietzsche was popular because he was easy to read.

There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of animals Chuck Norris allows to live.

Chuck Norris: If I am elected president