Speaking of bets

In a recent post about John P. Holdren's confirmation as Obama's science adviser, John Tierney links to this article about Julian Simon and Paul Erlich's famous bet about the future scarcity of natural resources. This topic keeps coming up with political arguments I've been having, so there it is for future reference. Here's a brief excerpt:

Betting on the Planet
By JOHN TIERNEY;
Published: December 2, 1990

In 1980 an ecologist and an economist chose a refreshingly unacademic way to resolve their differences. They bet $1,000. Specifically, the bet was over the future price of five metals, but at stake was much more -- a view of the planet's ultimate limits, a vision of humanity's destiny. It was a bet between the Cassandra and the Dr. Pangloss of our era.

They lead two intellectual schools -- sometimes called the Malthusians and the Cornucopians, sometimes simply the doomsters and the boomsters -- that use the latest in computer-generated graphs and foundation-generated funds to debate whether the world is getting better or going to the dogs. The argument has generally been as fruitless as it is old, since the two sides never seem to be looking at the same part of the world at the same time. Dr. Pangloss sees farm silos brimming with record harvests; Cassandra sees topsoil eroding and pesticide seeping into ground water. Dr. Pangloss sees people living longer; Cassandra sees rain forests being decimated. But in 1980 these opponents managed to agree on one way to chart and test the global future. They promised to abide by the results exactly 10 years later -- in October 1990 -- and to pay up out of their own pockets.

Long story short, Simon won the bet in 1990, and if it had been made again, he would have won again in 2000. And, for what it's worth, John Holdren was one of the scientists consulted by Ehrlich to pick out the scare resources.

Anyway, just about everyone else finds Erlich's Malthusian arguments convincing, and yet they are somehow always wrong. (YET, my political opponents are shouting) Ironically, Simon is a positive, happy-go-lucky Cassandra.

The apocalyptic impulse is deep rooted, probably because it is so egocentric. Our society is shallow and decadent, and so of course the arctic ice-caps will melt and send tidal waves roaring through Manhattan, where they'll chase Jake Gyllenhaal around. And it's not just the greens and the cults with funny hair cuts - consider the Terminator movies, where demonic robot gods throw us into an everlasting nuclear fire to punish us for our sins (of making them, I guess), or The Matrix, or The Lord of the Ring series - same deal, really.

The egocentric part is to think that my time, right now, must be the last age, as I am the pinnacle (or nadir, which is a lot cooler, a la that twit Oscar Wilde) of human existence. I think the universe is more sanguine.

for example

Obama is reversing Bush's decision on whether California et al can set their own environmental regulations:

Obama’s Order Is Likely to Tighten Auto Standards

I already commented on this before, and I maintain that an increased gas tax would be a much more efficient and direct solution than mileage and emission regulations. After all, the rise of the SUV was directly a result (unintended) of their exemption from the original CAFE standards as truck vehicles. Does anyone's grandmother not think that this will happen again?

Weather Stations and Voronoi Art

Maps from The Reference Frame, with a bit more on Voronoi Art here.

Now that gas is super cheap again, who cares?

But, this guy won a fuel economy contest with his Corvette Z06. Obvs, the rules were a little different than you might think, with the goal to get the biggest percentage improvement over the manufactuer's rating.

Occasionally I try to "hypermile" and see what I can get my TSX to do. It's spec'd at 20/30MPG city/highway. Cruising at 80 usually gives 32MPG, but I took it down to 55 and with a little help from my friendly beltway friends, I got 42MPG on a 72 mile round-trip from Alexandria to Gaithersburg. Not too shabby, but I only would have scored 42% better in the test above - I would have beat the Yaris though. To celebrate, I took fifteen cross-country flights.

Global Warming

Time Magazine: Northwest Passage Navigable

Nifty houses

Free house plans. They're pretty nice, although I'd raise the ceiling heights in some of them. Wide, long rooms with low ceilings feel off to me, even if they are more energy efficient.

Many sins are their own punishements

How Green Is the College? Time the Showers

Oberlin’s president, Marvin Krislov, dropped by with his young daughter a few weeks ago for burgers and grilled corn. Offering the ritual tour, the students demonstrated how they caught their shower and sink water in buckets and reused it to flush their low-flow toilet, a budget model improvised with a couple of salvaged bricks in the tank.

“He was using us to chastise his daughter for leaving lights on and the water running,” Mr. Brown said.

The bathroom is the showstopper on the tour. Besides the hourglass timer — Mr. Brown pointed out that it was called a shower coach and cost $3 online — the shower’s energy-saving motivational accessories include a picture of former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina plastered to the ceiling.

That was Ms. Bob-Waksberg’s idea. No one wants to linger in the shower with someone staring down from the ceiling, she said.

“You could also look at it another way,” she said, “that John Edwards is encouraging me to take a shorter shower.”

Boy, that's not all creepy at all. Also, environmentalists need to take longer, not shorter, showers.

My Hair Shirt is Cashmere

The fight over what "green" means
By Lynda V. Mapes
Seattle Times staff reporter

It was the People's Choice and Best in Show in the 2007 Street of Dreams, the Best in American Living for 2007, according to the National Association of Home Builders, and the first home in Snohomish County to earn a five-star rating as a Built Green home.

But with 4,750 square feet, a four-car garage and a location in a rural area where subdivisions aren't supposed to sprawl, was it really green?

The Urban Lodge was one of four mega homes burned in an act of arson this month near Maltby.

Even before the cork flooring and reclaimed timbers stopped smoking, the fires had reignited an already smoldering debate in a rapidly growing region struggling to find and keep its Pugetopian identity.

The search is on for a sort of Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval for the green consumer in the real-estate market, and the debate about what's truly green brings an answer from every corner.

Green building is no different from a host of other industries suddenly greening conventional products to serve a public that still wants it all — but now wants to feel good about it, too.

Gosh, maybe carbon-offsets would help.

BTW - why are people who buy offsets only trying for neutral? Shouldn't they aim for a negative footprint, so to speak?

CAFE au lait

Who'd thunkit, there's more than meets the eye: A) Cali et al are going to sue the government because they can't make their own regulations anymore, and B) CAFE MPG != EPA MPG >= MPG.

B) is just asinine, and should be stopped. Let us buy and sell and regulate with real-world numbers.

I'm way less informed on A), but my feeling is that states with stricter-than-the-fed emissions controls are spending other people's money for their preferences/needs. What they should do is just impose a carbon tax (gas) within their own borders to both reduce their local emissions and pay for some sort of remediation otherwise.

Anyway, I hope that diesel emissions standards would be more European than Californian/NYish, because I want to get one someday.

Free energy for everyone!

I'm pissing into the wind here, but let me note that mandating 35 mpg fleet averages could increase the total amount of gasoline burned per person because it could increase the car's marginal utility. (I think I know what those words mean) [previously]

Maybe we've already saturated that effect, although I might start towing an extra car to work, just in case the first one breaks. Either way, I doubt the energy policy will have the intended consequences. It most definitely will have unintended consequences.

The Prius and the Damage Done

Prius Outdoes Hummer in Environmental Damage
By Chris Demorro, March 7, 2007

Hybrid manufacturing uses much more energy than you might have believed, and so integrating over the total energy use, they have more impact on the environment than any conventional vehicle. His example with a Hummer is unrealistic (300k miles), but the comparison with an Aveo (or Yaris or Fit), is absolutely right. If you are truly interested in reducing oil use, drive a very small car during off-peak traffic hours to a nearby job.

Iowahawk's Virtual Cruise

I am proud to say my pocket-rocket has joined Iowahawk's Earth Week Virtual Cruise. By all means, join in too and do your part to help keep Mother Earth warm at night. My favorite car so far is the '66 Sunbeam Tiger with the 347 stroker. Zoinks!

Pigouvian Taxes (and Death)

"Do We Tax Energy Enough?"

Hoons

• Go 253 mph in a Bug.
• Beat tank engines into hot-rods: One & Two.

Now if you will excuse me, I am going to go drink some milk that's three days past its sell-by date.

Myths?

5 Myths About Suburbia and Our Car Culture, By Ted Balaker and Sam Staley, Washington Post.

1. Americans are addicted to driving.
2. Public transit can reduce traffic congestion.

Interesting.

New hybrid eco-car that I could actually get behind the wheel of

Update: I was looking at gallons per mile, not miles per gallon. My bad.