woot

Good job, doods. It may be a little bumpy (Get better Cliff!) but I think it's going to be a pretty fun ride this year for the Seattle Mariners. I'd be happy with a well-contended 2nd place, and I think they have a legitimate shot at 1st and an appearance in October. Fingers crossed!

Baseball Hall of Fame

FWIW, which isn't a lot, there are many baseball fans who were upset by the recent (ridiculous) Baseball Writers Association of America's Baseball Hall of Fame votes.  Adding insult to injury were the many laughable justifications these writers produced.  Let me suggest that "all writers with 10 years of membership in the BBWAA get to vote on the hall of fame" isn't a good criterion for who gets to vote, as is now manifestly obvious. Instead, let's introduce a little feedback into the system, so that fans get to vote on who gets to vote.  So an HOF Elector is a position somewhere between a Senator and a Supreme Court Justice, but maybe not the Electoral College Voter.

Roots and cranks, again

On umps and strike zones...

2) humans shouldn’t be calling balls and strikes. A guy squatting behind a plate can’t adequately determine if a 90mph pitch crossed a three-dimensional strike zone. The sooner the swap’s made, the better for the game.

This is correct, and yet it feels so wrong.

Roots and Cranks (online)

FWIW, I subscribed to MLB.tv to watch Mariner's games online, and so far, it's been a lot of fun. I'm trying to remember why it is that I'm paying for cable... [p.s.]

Is Moneyball wrong?

What Moneyball Missed - By Adam Fleisher Friday, April 3, 2009

Oakland’s front office sought out the unique statistical analyses popularized by the then-obscure baseball writer and analyst Bill James. James, as Lewis tells it, thought that baseball players’ talents were being measured incorrectly. For instance, teams insisted on “scouting” players by watching them on the field, as opposed to mining as much data as they could. Failing to scour the numbers was ridiculous because, as James put it, “the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter [i.e. good versus mediocre]. . .is one hit every two weeks.” Building on these types of insights, the A’s front office determined that baseball’s talent pool was an inefficient market. And as would be the case with an inefficient equity market, there were bargains to be had. In Lewis’s story, the A’s were winning because they were good at buying undervalued assets.

The rest of the league overpaid based on measures commonly used to determine the worth of baseball players (such as runs batted in and batting average) and so-called intangibles like “clutch hitting,” which Beane colorfully referred to as “f***ing luck.” They simultaneously missed, ignored, or simply did not believe in mundane qualities like walks and on-base percentage—qualities that the A’s thought could produce wins. Oakland even found inefficiencies they could exploit on the field. The team would not waste outs on things like bunting, stealing bases, or the hit-and-run; the data showed that these tactics were “either pointless or self-defeating.”

The only problem was that Lewis’s explanation for the A’s success was the same as Commissioner Selig’s—the team was an aberration. Since “most every other team looks at the market pretty much the same way,” as Lewis explained, if every team tried to exploit these same inefficiencies, then no team could. The market would correct, and the most valuable players—i.e. the players with the attributes most likely to produce wins—would be bought by the wealthiest teams. The championship would be for sale again.

But it isn’t. Moneyball missed something. That something is known as the reserve clause.

The author is arguing here that the reserve clause, which gives a team exclusive rights to its young draft picks, allows them to underpay these players, and that it is this that enables "Moneyball" teams to pay so much less for their wins compared to the Mets or Mariners. Which is partly true for the Mariner's circa their very winning 2001-2003 seasons, when they had Alex Rodriguez and Ichiro for cheap.

He has a point, except that the same misguided statistics that the M's used, for instance, to evaluate their terrible terrible free-agent signings go along with the prejudices they use to evaluate high-school and college players. And it's not just a question of ERA and Saves vs OBP and FIPS, but teams still vastly overpay for offensive stats versus defense. Measuring defense is still tricky, but models to quantify a players defense are now being developed, and when they are properly used by teams to evaluate and sign players, there are still large market inefficiencies that can be exploited by poorer teams.

Jaimie Moyer - Ancient Mariner - World Series Champ

After 22 seasons Jaime Moyer gets championship

Moyer Guides Phillies to 2008 World Series Championship

Watching this World Series was kinda fun, as I would have been happy with either team winning - I liked the Rays youth and seeing their excellent management pay off, and I could root for the Phillies in part because of Moyer.

It was fun watching Moyer pitch for the Mariners in 2001, winning 20 games for that historic team. The better part was his Roberto Clemente and Lou Gehrig awards in 2003. He still lives in Seattle, with his wife and seven kids. I'm glad he finally made it to the champioinship and won. The amazing thing is that, given how low-impact his pitching style is, he'll probably be playing when he has an AARP card.

I'd love to see Edgar Martinez get into the Hall of Fame someday, but I doubt it because he got a late start and doesn't have the hit totals you'd like. Moyer has a good shot, I'd say, at 300 wins, and he should get in, either way.

Funny stuff, onion

Mariners Improve To Eight Games Over .300

Baseball vs Life

You might like this. [via]

Roots and Cranks

Strange Maps: The United Countries of Baseball (swoosh).

1995 was a good year

Rally Fries!

Arcane Baseball Rules

Are there any other kind? Yes, stadium etiquette rules.

The Power of the Blogosphere?

USS Mariner: Felix, Mixing Pitches, And The Power of the Internet

Via Geoff Baker:

“Chaves gave me a report,” Hernandez said. “On the internet, they say when I throw a lot of fastballs in the first inning, they score a lot of runs. I tried to mix all my pitches in the first inning.”

Today, Felix threw a slider on the 3rd pitch of the game, then a curveball on the fifth pitch, getting Shannon Stewart to flyout to center. All told, he threw 3 breaking balls in his first 8 pitches, threw a first pitch slider to the 5th hitter of the game, and attacked almost every hitter with a variable selection of fastballs and breaking balls.

He gave up 2 hits in 8 innings.

Well, that's kinda cool.

From the Crash Davis Files

From this article about a single-A Mariner's pitcher Andrew Barb and from the Department of I Am Easily Amused:

Although Barb said he has yet to regain full velocity on his fastball, he is off to a good start with a 2-1 record and 2.05 earned-run average in 30-2/3 innings, not including a scoreless inning in the Midwest League All-Star Game.

He has 41 strikeouts and 12 walks. Barb said he has always had good strikeout-to-walk ratios, and he has a simple explanation for it.

"I know that strikeouts are good and walks are bad," he said, "so I try to do one and avoid the other."

[...]

"I didn't care if it was as a catcher or as a pitcher, I just wanted a chance," he said.

[...]

"I was playing catch with one of the trainers, and I couldn't even concentrate because I was looking all around, taking in everything, from the seats to the field," he said. "It would be a surreal experience to someday be playing there."

"We gotta play it one day at a time." Previously, Interview with a Search Engine.

Three at bats, six outs

Via the excellent USS Mariner,

The Short and Happy Career of Ron Wright
by Lee Jenkins, The New York Times, April 15th, 2007

POCATELLO, Idaho, April 11 — Five years ago, in an otherwise forgettable baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers, a 26-year-old rookie named Ron Wright struck out, hit into a double play and hit into a triple play.

"Best day of my professional life," Wright said.

He was the designated hitter for the Mariners, batting seventh, making his major league debut. Kenny Rogers pitched and Alex Rodriguez played shortstop for the Rangers. The afternoon sun beat down on the Ballpark in Arlington.

Wright batted three times. He accounted for six outs. And he never played in the major leagues again.

You're about as happy as you make your mind up to be, no?

Sports

Well, that was a good game. Mariners win 3-0 on a 1 hit shut out. Here is a not really related cartoon which somehow captures the moment.

[via]

The odd thing about baseball and sports in general, is that the outcome of a completely insane-when-you-think-about-it game played by guys I know not at all personally makes me feel good or bad. I guess the ultimate expression of this is the Olympics, where I'm supposed to root for semi-pro ice curlers based on the flag design of their unitard. And the rules for sports are bizarre, arcane, arbitrary, and mostly incomprehensible. It is a great metaphor for life, which is mostly absurd and mostly hilarious*.

I have worked in a mostly European group in the past and have only marginally defended baseball (and only marginally made fun of soccer; except when the French lost. That was great). Anyway, you either get baseball or you don't, in which case you have bad taste in sports and you should feel bad.

* "Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh."
George Bernard Shaw

Felix Hernandez

Third inning, Boston vs Seattle, Hernandez is dropping 92 mph sliders on top of 100-99 mph fastballs followed up with 90 mph curves and 88 mph breaking balls. Electric stuff, effectively wild (scary). Last time someone this good was pitching for the Mariners was Randy Johnson in 1993 through 1997.

Usually these marque match-ups disappoint (oh yeah, some guy called Dice-K's pitching too), but so far, this one is Awesome. Wicked frickin' pissa' awesome.

UPDATE: HERNANDEZ IS PITCHING A NO-HITTER THROUGH 7, AND HE IS DOMINATING. I AM SO EXCITED I'M BREAKING MY NUMBER TWO RULE* AND TYPING IN ALL-CAPS, BECAUSE YES, I REALLY AM SHOUTING.

Update 2: Pineiro is in for Boston. My brother Adam just called to say that this is a bit of strategy on Cochran's part: Let Pineiro give up 15 runs, at which point Felix will have sat too long to go back in.... There's only one word for it: Strategery. Yes, Yoda is wise, but the Rock is powerful.

*Number one rule? I will never, ever, never ever buy an RV.

Hope Springs Eternal

Seattle 4, Oakland 0:

F. Hernandez (W, 1-0), 8.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 12K, 0HR.

Hope's not going to last very long this year, but there might be one or two bright spots.

"Virtue is its own reward. Because it has to be."

It's been a tough off-season to be a Seattle Mariners fan. But misery is often the muse for genius, New adventures and old stories:

TALE THE SECOND: THE TALE OF DOM PERIGNON (BORROWED)
Wandering the streets and trails of Okinawa with a camera and notebook is harder work than you might estimate. There’s always more going on than I have time, energy or expertise to catalog. After these days, there are the nights.

Usually my preference is local establishments catering to locals. One night, though, I happened upon an expatriate bar, that hallmark of literary excellence. The Lost Generation had theirs, Stein and Hemingway. With luck, I thought, this spot might serve as my Cafe de Medecis, Max’s Kansas City or even my Rick’s.

Better yet, the place has an international feel. The owner’s from the Phillipines and speaks three languages, the staff friendly, the clientele a hodgepodge of American military, Aussie wanderers, university professors. On a given night you can be talking about Baudrillard or buying drinks for a couple of young men headed for Iraq. Or both, and sometimes with the same people.

When I came here, I brought a case of Pinot Gris from Oregon, my home state. These would serve as gifts for people I met who helped with the book. Lively conversation and the occasional piece of information certainly assist, so the bar owner qualifies. It was her birthday on Wednesday, so I thought I’d swing by and drop a bottle off.

Giving liquor to someone that owns a bar is kind of like giving Dave Cameron advice about prospect analysis, but hey, it’s what I had. It’s the gesture that counts, right?

After I finished karate, I stepped into the low blue light expecting no one to be around. It was 10 p.m. on a Wednesday, hardly prime watering hole time. Yet there were the bar owner and staff with their families, having a small private party. I hadn’t expected anything but to drop off the wine and chalk up my good deed for the day.

They’d just opened two bottles of Dom Perignon, one 1997 and one 1999. Would I like to stay and sample them, since I’d never had such vintage?

Virtue is its own reward. Dom Perignon is nice, too.

And it only gets better when the devil, evil Rick Rizz, shows up. Mariners baseball, after a very brief fluorescence has settled back into their decades old ruts of losing, incompetence and overall misery. Perhaps it's just the manifestation of Seattle's long drizzly gray winters, but USS Mariner is great.

USS Mariner Off-Season Analysis

The internet, and as it turns out baseball fandom, is full of nerds: Bill Bavasi's Off-Season Adventure.

OFFSEASON ADVENTURE

You are in an open offseason in your office in the headquarters of a successful west coast baseball team. It is dark and raining here. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.
There is a suitcase here.
There is a neatly stacked set of travel documents here.

> examine documents

You have been booked on a ten PM redeye flight from Seattle to Naples, Florida. There is a long layover in Atlanta.

> Oh, no.

I don't understand that.

An staffer enters your office.
"Sir? I'm ready to drive you to Seatac. Oh, Lee says that the Cubs signed Aramis Ramirez."

> examine Aramis Ramirez signing

Aramis Ramirez signed for $75m over 5 years.

> what?

You must supply a direct object.

> are you kidding me?

I don't understand that.

Hilarious (to me) and true!

Baseball canary?

Requiem for a rookie card. By Dave Jamieson.

Last month, when my parents sold the house I grew up in, my mom forced me to come home and clear out my childhood bedroom. I opened the closet and found a box the size of a Jetta. It was so heavy that at first I thought it held my Weider dumbbells from middle school. Nope, this was my old stash. Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of baseball cards from the 1980s. Puckett, Henderson, Sandberg, Gwynn, and McGwire stared back at me with fresh faces. So long, old friends, I thought. It's time for me to cash in on these long-held investments. I started calling the lucky card dealers who would soon be bidding on my trove.

First, I got a couple of disconnected numbers for now-defunct card shops. Not a good sign. Then I finally reached a human. "Those cards aren't worth anything," he told me, declining to look at them.